Even though I do not think your Black Swan #4, Oil his $400/barrel, will actually happen this year, I do like that you included it in a list for education, as it is the kind of “external” factor that seriously disrupts the norm that no one sees coming.

Many of the others don’t seem particularly like “Black Swans” to me. Foreign enrollments are already threatened by global economic conditions. Free LMS? Exists in droves – free isn’t the barrier. At least in the US, it seems like publishers weren’t successful in stopping the OER appropriations bill, at least this year. Free books for everyone – what, you mean you pay for books? 😉